Clinton wins close Nevada contest, Romney coasts there

By Samuel Rubenfeld
News Editor

Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) won the hotly contested Nevada Democratic caucus for her second straight victory, while Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) coasted to victory there in the Republican caucus in the first major contest in the West.

With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton captured 51 percent of the vote, with Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) receiving 45 percent and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) placing a distant third, not even receiving four percent.

Nevada state Democratic party officials told the New York Times that they had a record turnout of more than 107,000 voters, making it the third straight state to host a record turnout of Democratic voters in the early primary season.

The powerful Culinary Union had endorsed Obama the day after the New Hampshire primary, and that was expected to deliver him a major constituency because of its deep organization and strength in Nevada.

Democratic voters poured into caucus sites around the state, including eight sites on the Las Vegas strip that were the source of major controversy between the Clinton and Obama campaigns: after the Culinary Union endorsement, elements connected to the Clinton campaign filed a lawsuit claiming caucus-goers at those sites had disproportionate power because they were able to caucus while at work, whereas other workers could not. The lawsuit failed, but Clinton won at least six of the sites anyway.

“Today we won a huge victory by overcoming institutional hurdles,” said a memo from the Clinton campaign hours after the caucuses closed. “This was a victory for all those who work hard and caucused on behalf of Hillary to revive our struggling economy.”

Clinton had accused surrogates of the Obama campaign of intimidating caucus-goers to vote for him in the late hours of the Nevada contest, but she showed no concrete evidence of such intimidation, citing “anecdotes” from her supporters.

Exit polls indicated a nearly 3-1 margin of victory for Clinton by Hispanic voters. A majority of women voters supported Clinton, according to exit polls.

The same exit polls indicated a 5-1 margin of victory amongst black voters for Obama.

NBC News called Romney’s victory by 1 p.m., immediately upon the closing of the GOP caucuses. Half of his voters were Mormon, according to exit polls.

Romney was the only Republican candidate to seriously campaign in Nevada, with most of the others concerning themselves with the South Carolina GOP primary occurring the same day. Turnout there was expected to be impacted by the weather, which forecasted for snow in many parts of the state.

With 97 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Romney won with 51 percent of the vote, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), each with 13 percent, but Paul edged McCain by about 200 votes.

UPDATE: Victory for Clinton is not so settled after all. The Obama campaign put out a statement saying despite losing the caucus by percentage, it won the battle over delegates, 13 to 12, and that the Clinton campaign engaged in voter intimidation. Clinton's campaign responded saying he was wrong, that they won 13 to 12. Further muddling the picture is the state Democratic chairman, who said he cannot verify the vote count, because he is assuming the delegates are going to stay committed to their candidate until the official tally is taken in late April.

Stay tuned, because this can get very, very ugly.

Romney wins Michigan, Dems debate in Nevada

By Samuel Rubenfeld
News Editor

In a whirlwind night of presidential politics, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the Republican Michigan primary, while the leading Democrats sat down to debate in Las Vegas on MSNBC.

With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Romney captured 39 percent of the vote, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) placed second with 30 percent of the vote and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee earned a distant third with 16 percent.

Romney's win continues the wide-open Republican race for the nomination; in its first three major contests, Republicans have chosen three different candidates.

“A Romney victory further muddles the field, and the candidate who benefits most is [New York City Mayor Rudy] Giuliani,” said Richard Himelfarb, an associate professor of political science. “Rudy can still get the nomination with a victory in Florida, but he has to win there.”

Giuliani placed sixth in Michigan with 3 percent, only defeating one other named candidate, fringe candidate Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.). Analysts believe Giuliani’s strategy to ignore the early states in favor of lavishing attention on larger, more diverse states with large delegate counts is highly risky, and may have already cost him the nomination.

Democratic voters also went to the ballot boxes in Michigan, but their votes were irrelevant, due to party violations for holding the primary before Feb. 5. Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) won the primary with 55 percent of the vote with 97 percent of precincts reporting, but the victory awarded her no delegates at the national convention.

Clinton was the only major candidate on the Democratic ballot in Michigan, and 40 percent of voters chose “uncommitted” instead of picking a candidate. According to NBC News exit polls, 73 percent of those uncommitted voters would have voted for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). (Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot.)

Since Michigan did not matter, the Democrats moved on to debate in Nevada, where their caucuses will occur Saturday, Jan. 19. Before the debate began, it was already fraught with controversy, with the Nevada Supreme Court ruling against Rep. Dennis Kucinich and his appeal to participate in the debate in Las Vegas less than four hours before its scheduled start.

The debate was notable for its civility on the heels of what became a personally bruising 72 hours between the Obama and Clinton campaigns that featured a heated battle over race and gender issues.

The candidates backtracked from the heated exchanges, with Clinton answering the first question of the debate by saying “neither race nor gender should be a part of this campaign.”

The debate featured a different format, with the candidates seated at a table instead of standing at lecterns, and pundits believed that it contributed to the level of civility.

It also was noted for its nuance, especially regarding the subprime mortgage scandal and bankruptcy. Clinton brought up CountryWide, a mortagage company recently bought by Bank of America, as an example of corporate Americaout of touch with ordinary people.

“Countrywide gets bought and the CEO, who was one of the architects of this whole subprime mess, is set off with $100 million — $100 million in severance pay,” she said. “The priorities and the values are absolutely wrong.”

The candidates had the opportunity to ask each other one question. Clinton took the opportunity to ask Obama to co-sponsor a bill not allowing the President to enter into an agreement with the Iraqi government that would “bind the hands of the next president,” without Congressional approval.

As a sign of the evening, Obama agreed to work on the bill. “Well, I think we can work on this, Hillary,” he said.

A night of presidential politics

In one night of presidential politics, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney wins the Michigan primary and the Democratic candidates debate in Las Vegas.

Primary results and analysis can be found here. You can read the transcript of the debate here, or watch video highlights on msnbc.com.