Presidential Primaries 101

NBC Nightly News explains how complicated the process will be when 24 states will be voting on Super Tuesday:



(Video provided by Nightly.MSNBC.com)

Edwards drops out

Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) is dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination. His platform was populist in nature, and he decried the pressures on the middle class. But his consistent third-place finishes in Democratic primaries and caucuses led to the end of his candidacy.

UPDATE: Sen. Obama released a statement on Edwards' departure:

CHICAGO, IL - Senator Barack Obama released the following statement regarding John Edwards.

“John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn’t popular to do or covered in the news. At a time when our politics is too focused on who’s up and who’s down, he made a nation focus again on who matters – the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington. John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this – that two Americans can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose. So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America,” said Barack Obama.

McCain wins Florida primary, Rudy out tomorrow; Clinton wins, but earns no delegates

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is leaving the race for president after placing third in a primary he had said was a "must win." (Video provided by MSNBC.com)

By Kimberly Chin
Assistant News Editor

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won the Florida Republican primary, beating Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) by five points, 36 percent to 31 percent, with 95 percent of precincts reporting, while Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) won a Democratic primary that awarded her no delegates.

McCain earned all 57 national convention delegates from the state and drove former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani from the race. Giuliani placed in third, earning 15 percent in a state he repeatedly said was a "must win," since he relied on a victory there to parlay momentum into the Super Tuesday contests, where more than 21 states will choose their Republican nominee.

"Our victory might not have met landslide proportions," McCain said at his victory rally, "but it's sweet nonetheless." McCain drew upon the conservative and senior voters in the state while Romney was able to scoop up the moderate and socially liberal voters.

Giuliani spent millions of dollars in Florida, campaigning there almost alone while the other candidates spent time competing in the other early primary states, including Iowa, Michigan and South Carolina. In his concession, he did not explicitly drop out of the race, but reports confirmed his departure minutes after he left the stage.

"We ran a campaign that was uplifting," he told his supporters.

Florida is a crucial state in the Republican primary having given the most delegates in a single state thus far. About 2 million voters turned out in Florida to vote in the Republican contest.

Exit polls show that the economy was the most important issue for Florida voters. McCain said that it is up to the government to not spend more than necessary pointing out the excessive money spent in wars overseas and have resulted in a "loss" to Americans.

Drawing from his military experience, he stressed the need for the government to secure the nation from "enemies foreign and domestic."

Romney also stressed the importance of the economy in his concession. "The economy is in my blood," he told Floridians; Romney was referring to his corporate background in the venture capital business. "Americans need a president in the White House that's actually had a job in the real world," Romney said.

"We are not going to change Washington by just sending the same people back just to sit in different chairs," said Romney. "Change will begin with us."

Gov. Mike Huckabee (R- Ark.) told his supporters in Florida he will be heading to California, suggesting that he still had high hopes for Super Tuesday, and he was staying in the race, despite placing fourth in the Florida primary.

Democratic voters took to the polls as well, despite being stripped of its national delegates because the state chose to hold its primary before the national party rules said it could. The candidates, as a result, agreed not to campaign in the state as well. Analysts deemed the primary a "beauty contest."

Clinton won the primary handily, getting 50 percent of the votes, with 94 percent of the precincts reporting. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won 33 percent while Edwards picked up 14 percent of the vote. Clinton was the only Democrat to appear in Florida to address supporters there, and she did it after the polls closed.

“I could not come here to ask in person for your votes, but I am here to thank you for your votes today," she said. "I am thrilled to have had this vote of confidence that you have given me today, and I promise you I will do everything I can to make sure not only are Florida’s Democratic delegates seated, but Florida is in the winning column for the Democrats in 2008."

Both parties are now turning to Feb. 5, in which the candidates will be busy traversing the country trying to gain as much support from the 24 states participating in the primaries and caucuses as they can. Super Tuesday will be a make-or-break for many of the candidates, and it could indicate a clear frontrunner in close primary elections.

With the Florida win, McCain was very hopeful about his chances on Tuesday. "I'm confident we will succeed in this contest and in the bigger one against any one of the Democratic nominees," he said.

Obama wins by substantial margin in South Carolina

(Sen. Barack Obama defiantly delivers his victory speech in South Carolina. Video provided by MSNBC.com)

By Kimberly Chin
Assistant News Editor

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama dominated Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) in the South Carolina Democratic primary, winning 55 percent to a 26 percent, with 100 percent of precincts reporting on another Democratic primary with record turnout. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was right behind Clinton with 17 percent in the polls.

The Palmetto state victory has reinvigorated Obama's campaign after consecutive second-place finishes behind Clinton, who has won New Hampshire and Nevada. Obama also scored a major endorsement from Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of former President John F. Kennedy.

Obama's victory speech was defiant in the face of week-long attacks from Clinton's campaign, including from former President Bill Clinton himself.

"After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates, and the most diverse coalition of Americans we've seen in a long, long time," he said. "They are young and old, rich and poor. They are black and white, Latino and Asian. They are Democrats from Des Moines and Independents from Concord; Republicans from rural Nevada and young people across this country who've never had a reason to participate until now.

"And in nine days, nearly half the nation will have the chance to join us in saying that we are tired of business-as-usual in Washington, we are hungry for change, and we are ready to believe again," he said.

The record turnout in South Carolina was the fourth-straight Democratic contest with more voters than ever before; more than 530,000 voters turned out. Obama got more votes today than the entire Democratic turnout in 2004, said Howard Fineman, a Newsweek political analyst, on MSNBC.

Clinton decided not to deliver a formal concession speech, instead moving immediately beyond the contest to campaign in Tennessee. Instead, she released a statement, which said she had called Obama to congratulate him, thanking her supporters in South Carolina and calling for her campaign to "turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard" in the twenty-four states that will vote on Feb. 5.

Edwards delivered a concession speech in which he announced that he would continue to look to Feb. 5 to gain the support he needed, and told the low- and middle-income Americans that their voices will be heard in his campaign on Super Tuesday. "We will speak for you and fight for you," he told his supporters.

His third place standing came despite a bounce in the polls after a bruising debate on Tuesday, Jan. 22, in which Obama and Clinton leveled personal attacks against each other. South Carolina is Edwards' birth state, and he invested heavily in the state, in an attempt to show credibility as a native-Southerner.

Exit polls indicated a huge amount of support from black voters for Obama. He received 80 percent of their votes, compared with 18 percent for Clinton and 1 percent for Obama. The three candidates split white voters almost equally, but Clinton took the most with slightly more than 30 percent.

Obama emphasized the diversity of his support. "I did not travel around his state and see a white South Carolina or a black South Carolina," Obama told the cheering audience in South Carolina. "I saw South Carolina."

Kucinich drops out

Rep. Dennis Kucinich is ending his second long-shot run for the presidency, reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer , via Politico.com.

His candidacy was marked by low poll numbers, and his eventual dis-invitation to an NBC News debate, which led to a court battle settled in the final hours before the debate took place.

Thompson drops out

Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who announced his candidacy for President on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" on the night the other Republican candidates at the time were debating, has dropped out of the race.

His campaign was dogged by allegations of laziness on the campaign trail, and he performed poorly in a contest his campaign said he needed to win--or at least perform well in-- in South Carolina.

The Thompson campaign issued a statement from the Senator announcing his withdrawal.

McCain edges Huckabee in South Carolina

Sen. John McCain accepts victory in the South Carolina GOP primary. (Video provided by MSNBC.com)

By Kimberly Chin
Assistant News Editor

Uncertainty continues in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, as Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) wins the South Carolina primary with 33 percent of the vote to become the GOP victor in the first Southern primary, a state he lost when he was the object of aggressive negative campaigning in 2000 by then-Gov. George W. Bush's campaign.

He edged out Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.), who received 30 percent of the vote, with 94 percent of precincts reporting, while Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) and Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) raced for third place, Romney trailing behind Thompson by less than 1 percent.

“It took us a while, but what’s eight years among friends?” McCain said in his victory speech, referring to his unsuccessful campaign against President George Bush in 2000. Shouts of “Mac is back! Mac is back!” echoed among McCain's supporters.

Every GOP winner in the South Carolina primary has become the nominee since 1980. And no Republican has won the White House without South Carolina for decades.

McCain's support again came from Independents and some Republicans, but he lost overall registered Republicans to Huckabee. Huckabee's core constituency, evangelical Christians, split its vote between McCain, Huckabee and Thompson, according to exit polls.

McCain appealed to the voters who felt that the top campaign issue remains the war in Iraq, according to exit polls.

Huckabee had announced that he had called McCain personally to congratulate him and thanked him for a "civil and decent" campaign. "The path to the White House is not ending here tonight," Huckabee said in his concession speech. "Tomorrow we wake up to fight the battle yet again and yet again."

Thompson delivered a rambling speech to his supporters even before the votes were fully tallied. "It's never been about me. It's never even been about you. It's been about our country," Thompson told his supporters. Pundits on MSNBC were laughing as he finished, and anchor Keith Olbermann asked "What was that?" as they came back on the air.

Analysts believe he may drop out of the race in the coming days, because he had been banking on a strong showing in South Carolina, and he did not indicate meeting that threshold. CNN reported that two sources said Thompson may be hitting the end of his campaign, with aides saying it had become "abundantly evident to us all."

Romney's shifted his focus from South Carolina toward Nevada earlier in the campaign, amounting to a victory for him there.

McCain's victory carries momentum for his campaign into Florida, where the GOP holds its next primary on Jan. 29, and where McCain already has a slight lead, according to polls conducted in the state. New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is banking on a Florida victory to carry his campaign into Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, but his precipitous decline in the polls may prevent it from happening.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) drops out

CNN Political Ticker reports Hunter abandoning his candidacy for President.

Clinton wins close Nevada contest, Romney coasts there

By Samuel Rubenfeld
News Editor

Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) won the hotly contested Nevada Democratic caucus for her second straight victory, while Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) coasted to victory there in the Republican caucus in the first major contest in the West.

With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton captured 51 percent of the vote, with Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) receiving 45 percent and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) placing a distant third, not even receiving four percent.

Nevada state Democratic party officials told the New York Times that they had a record turnout of more than 107,000 voters, making it the third straight state to host a record turnout of Democratic voters in the early primary season.

The powerful Culinary Union had endorsed Obama the day after the New Hampshire primary, and that was expected to deliver him a major constituency because of its deep organization and strength in Nevada.

Democratic voters poured into caucus sites around the state, including eight sites on the Las Vegas strip that were the source of major controversy between the Clinton and Obama campaigns: after the Culinary Union endorsement, elements connected to the Clinton campaign filed a lawsuit claiming caucus-goers at those sites had disproportionate power because they were able to caucus while at work, whereas other workers could not. The lawsuit failed, but Clinton won at least six of the sites anyway.

“Today we won a huge victory by overcoming institutional hurdles,” said a memo from the Clinton campaign hours after the caucuses closed. “This was a victory for all those who work hard and caucused on behalf of Hillary to revive our struggling economy.”

Clinton had accused surrogates of the Obama campaign of intimidating caucus-goers to vote for him in the late hours of the Nevada contest, but she showed no concrete evidence of such intimidation, citing “anecdotes” from her supporters.

Exit polls indicated a nearly 3-1 margin of victory for Clinton by Hispanic voters. A majority of women voters supported Clinton, according to exit polls.

The same exit polls indicated a 5-1 margin of victory amongst black voters for Obama.

NBC News called Romney’s victory by 1 p.m., immediately upon the closing of the GOP caucuses. Half of his voters were Mormon, according to exit polls.

Romney was the only Republican candidate to seriously campaign in Nevada, with most of the others concerning themselves with the South Carolina GOP primary occurring the same day. Turnout there was expected to be impacted by the weather, which forecasted for snow in many parts of the state.

With 97 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Romney won with 51 percent of the vote, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), each with 13 percent, but Paul edged McCain by about 200 votes.

UPDATE: Victory for Clinton is not so settled after all. The Obama campaign put out a statement saying despite losing the caucus by percentage, it won the battle over delegates, 13 to 12, and that the Clinton campaign engaged in voter intimidation. Clinton's campaign responded saying he was wrong, that they won 13 to 12. Further muddling the picture is the state Democratic chairman, who said he cannot verify the vote count, because he is assuming the delegates are going to stay committed to their candidate until the official tally is taken in late April.

Stay tuned, because this can get very, very ugly.

Romney wins Michigan, Dems debate in Nevada

By Samuel Rubenfeld
News Editor

In a whirlwind night of presidential politics, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the Republican Michigan primary, while the leading Democrats sat down to debate in Las Vegas on MSNBC.

With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Romney captured 39 percent of the vote, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) placed second with 30 percent of the vote and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee earned a distant third with 16 percent.

Romney's win continues the wide-open Republican race for the nomination; in its first three major contests, Republicans have chosen three different candidates.

“A Romney victory further muddles the field, and the candidate who benefits most is [New York City Mayor Rudy] Giuliani,” said Richard Himelfarb, an associate professor of political science. “Rudy can still get the nomination with a victory in Florida, but he has to win there.”

Giuliani placed sixth in Michigan with 3 percent, only defeating one other named candidate, fringe candidate Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.). Analysts believe Giuliani’s strategy to ignore the early states in favor of lavishing attention on larger, more diverse states with large delegate counts is highly risky, and may have already cost him the nomination.

Democratic voters also went to the ballot boxes in Michigan, but their votes were irrelevant, due to party violations for holding the primary before Feb. 5. Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) won the primary with 55 percent of the vote with 97 percent of precincts reporting, but the victory awarded her no delegates at the national convention.

Clinton was the only major candidate on the Democratic ballot in Michigan, and 40 percent of voters chose “uncommitted” instead of picking a candidate. According to NBC News exit polls, 73 percent of those uncommitted voters would have voted for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). (Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot.)

Since Michigan did not matter, the Democrats moved on to debate in Nevada, where their caucuses will occur Saturday, Jan. 19. Before the debate began, it was already fraught with controversy, with the Nevada Supreme Court ruling against Rep. Dennis Kucinich and his appeal to participate in the debate in Las Vegas less than four hours before its scheduled start.

The debate was notable for its civility on the heels of what became a personally bruising 72 hours between the Obama and Clinton campaigns that featured a heated battle over race and gender issues.

The candidates backtracked from the heated exchanges, with Clinton answering the first question of the debate by saying “neither race nor gender should be a part of this campaign.”

The debate featured a different format, with the candidates seated at a table instead of standing at lecterns, and pundits believed that it contributed to the level of civility.

It also was noted for its nuance, especially regarding the subprime mortgage scandal and bankruptcy. Clinton brought up CountryWide, a mortagage company recently bought by Bank of America, as an example of corporate Americaout of touch with ordinary people.

“Countrywide gets bought and the CEO, who was one of the architects of this whole subprime mess, is set off with $100 million — $100 million in severance pay,” she said. “The priorities and the values are absolutely wrong.”

The candidates had the opportunity to ask each other one question. Clinton took the opportunity to ask Obama to co-sponsor a bill not allowing the President to enter into an agreement with the Iraqi government that would “bind the hands of the next president,” without Congressional approval.

As a sign of the evening, Obama agreed to work on the bill. “Well, I think we can work on this, Hillary,” he said.

A night of presidential politics

In one night of presidential politics, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney wins the Michigan primary and the Democratic candidates debate in Las Vegas.

Primary results and analysis can be found here. You can read the transcript of the debate here, or watch video highlights on msnbc.com.

Welcome

Welcome to The Chronicle's online coverage of the 2008 presidential election.

Since the University took a trip to New Hampshire, and it is hosting a presidential debate in October, it is imperative for The Chronicle to be on the front lines covering as many facets of the campaign as it can. Because The Chronicle is a weekly publication, the easiest and fastest way to cover the election is to blog the developments as they come.

Some of this blog will be rewrite (linking students to articles/polls/issues that The Chronicle believes newsworthy to University students, but not in The Chronicle) but we will make every attempt to keep the content as original as possible.

Please stay tuned for coverage throughout the year, ending when every vote is counted, and when the United States has selected is 44th President.